Ryan Bridge looks at how the kindness brand Jacinda Ardern has created for herself has become a formidable foe, arguing National needs to change tack if it ever wants to turn things around.
Where we once talked about personal responsibility we now talk about kindness. Where we once strove to get ahead we now want to be part of the team. What was a welfare state is now a sign of compassion. Welcome to what the Brits are calling our ‘Super-Kiwi-socialistic-empire-of-Jacinda’.
Ardern has shrewdly harnessed the power of a new-found celebrity; gracing the cover of Vogue, adorning the burj khalifa in a hijab and starring in the biggest break-out show of 2020: The 1pm Covid Update.
At every opportunity, this master communicator has articulated a warm, caring and compassionate vibe to voters. Which is not to say it’s insincere, but rather, very widely consumed and therefore effective.
She has almost single-handedly created a brand and is selling it better than the Kardashians sold the big booty. All in the space of three years.
The problem for National is that the politics of kindness is hard to beat.
Being thrifty and quickly balancing a budget to ensure the country has a nest egg ready for the next disaster has become cruel and unkind. Some have even gone as far as calling National and ACT’s plans for the books dangerous.
If you don’t believe in the way Ardern does business then you are seen as inherently unsympathetic. You must be heartless.
Gone are the days of middle New Zealand blushing when John Key and Bill English said “fiscal responsibility”.
Being thrifty and quickly balancing a budget to ensure the country has a nest egg ready for the next disaster has become cruel and unkind. Some have even gone as far as calling National and ACT’s plans for the books dangerous.
Giving money back in the form of tax cuts to those who’ve worked long hours away from their families has become immoral and irresponsible.
Forget about trying to ensure those on welfare aren’t abusing taxpayers by having sensible sanctions. That’s now picking on the poor.
This fundamental change to the way many voters think – and how much of the media talks – about political issues has created an enormous problem for National which will take some effort, time and energy to try and shift.
They’re probably already thinking about what comes after the election.
A bad case of the blues
Collins may well believe that the contents of her prayers are strictly between herself and the Holy Father, but we all know what she was asking for at St Thomas Church in Tamaki on Sunday.
Please, oh Heavenly Father, please will you wipe the shine off Jacinda Ardern?
It’s not impossible for Collins to take the Treasury benches next Saturday (as I outlined a few weeks back), but the cards are stacked against her.
Leader-hopping from Bridges to Muller to Collins, ill-discipline and scandal from Hamish Walker and Andrew Falloon, infighting from all corners of the caucus and more leaks than a state house roof; this will likely be a particularly unpleasant Sunday hangover for a party that started the term with 56 MPs.
Barring any major surprises, National will crawl out of this election fight a bloodied and bruised loser following a disastrous year.
Leader-hopping from Bridges to Muller to Collins, ill-discipline and scandal from Hamish Walker and Andrew Falloon, infighting from all corners of the caucus and more leaks than a state house roof; this will likely be a particularly unpleasant Sunday hangover for a party that started the term with 56 MPs.
They’ll lick their wounds and depending on how far below 35 the party vote dips, the Captain may be sacked … But then what?
How do you fight the politics of kindness and the all-powerful brand Ardern and how do you ensure not a second of the next term is wasted?
Do what The Don did
If the Nats are looking for inspiration to take down a popular second-term Labour leader after election day, they could do worse than adopting a strategy employed with great success against Helen Clark. It didn’t win the election but at least put them within firing distance.
After steering National to its worst-ever electoral defeat in 2002, Bill English was said to be quite emotional at the first caucus meeting of the new term and with good reason. With just 27 MPs, a handful of whom were newcomers, the caucus had been smashed to smithereens and continued to languish for some time before Don Brash publicly rolled English to become leader in October 2003.
This marked a turning point and the start of a strategic war for the centre-ground that within just two years saw National’s party vote climb to within a whisker of Labour’s. It wasn’t the only factor at play in shifting the polls but it was very significant.
Brash started with a speech outlining five key themes for the party under his leadership. These themes formed the basis of five headline-grabbing speeches delivered over the following two years. Brash’s Nationhood address delivered at Orewa received huge attention as did another focused on a culture of welfare dependency. The polls surged. Labour panicked.
Collins may well believe that the contents of her prayers are strictly between herself and the Holy Father, but we all know what she was asking for at St Thomas Church in Tamaki on Sunday.
Clark was eventually able to form the next government, National managed to claw back a staggering 21 of its lost MPs. Talk about salvaging the furniture.
It didn’t happen by accident. This was calculated. This was planned. And there was a strategy. These were issues where a clear point of difference between the two major parties could be established and Labour was somewhat hamstrung in its ability to respond to changes in public opinion. If the narrative (a la kindness) doesn’t suit you then change it and replace it with something that does.
No… I’m not suggesting National go start a new race debate in 2021.
But perhaps there are issues that fit the bill in the context of the next three years? There’s certainly fertile ground in housing, the price and expense of which is creating huge social pressure and forcing the government to start forking out for things like school lunches. After the failure of KiwiBuild, Labour’s shown little willingness to address the issue in any meaningful way. Perhaps it’s one for the Nats?
Welfare is another area where National can create a clear point of difference by trying to address the problems of long-term dependency and growing dole queues. Why not set a target for reduction?
And who knows, perhaps Christopher Luxon, set to enter Parliament for the first time this election, could be the new Brash, who entered three years before leading the Nats to that 2005 cliffhanger.
A lighter shade of blue
Perhaps another way around the sticky obstacle of Ardern’s politics of kindness is to soften the party’s image.
This is easier said than done. Nikki Kaye and Todd Muller’s attempts to shift the party towards an increasingly populated centre ruffled more than a few feathers in the rank and file and bolstered support for ACT more than most will give them credit for. Collins played nice for a while before the party faithful crowed for Crusher’s return, which didn’t take long. What, dear!?
Another potential way to soften some of what moderate voters may view as the party’s more contentious policies is to dress them up a wee bit. Soften the issues without compromising on core beliefs.
So you like farmers but the urbanites take an increasingly dim view of their impact on the environment? Why not ring-fence a portion of their enormous tax-take for cleaning up rivers?
Want to continue oil and gas exploration and the industry’s half billion dollar annual tax and royalty cheques but finding the opposition increasingly deafening? Why not ring-fence some of that cash to end child poverty?
These are just ideas and we don’t even have an election result yet.
But unless National starts thinking seriously about how best to approach Opposition in a new political environment, with a new style of politics to contend with, it may stay there a long time yet.
