Opening up quarantine-free trans-Tasman travel bubble was the envy of the world, but with costly pauses and now level 2 restrictions, it begs the question: has the bubble been worth it?
The Trans-Tasman bubble was paused last week for travel to New South Wales after a person who travelled from Sydney to Wellington tested positive for Covid-19.
The capital moved into Alert Level 2 restrictions, while the rest of the country remained at Level 1. The travel stoppage has been extended for another 12 days.
And this happened almost immediately after the bubble pause with Victoria had lifted.
Deputy prime minister Grant Robertson says extending the Level 2 restrictions of a week in Wellington could cost the economy $10 million.
Tourism operators say while the stop-start nature of operations in a post-Covid have been frustrating, the travel bubble has felt like the light at the end of the tunnel.
According to Stats NZ, since the Trans-Tasman bubble opened in April there have been more than 87,800 visitors from Australia. However after an initial spike, bubble pauses have caused the trend to decline week on week, with 18,000 arrivals the week the bubble opened dropping to just 8000 in the first week of June.
Queenstown and Arrowtown bike tour operator Matt Hirst said his business Better by Bike had domestic travellers supporting him over the past year, but in the last two weeks there has been an influx of Australian tourists.
Hirst says the travel bubble and domestic tourists had bumped up sales by 50 percent.
But tourists were still cautious of plans, with most showing up on the day rather than booking in advance.
A recent survey by Finder of 2076 Kiwis found just 18 percent planned to travel to Australia in the next six months, and only 8 percent wanted to travel to the Cook Islands.
Of those, it was mainly millennials who were most keen on using the travel bubble.
This week Hirst had 40 tourists one day, but fewer than 10 on others, made up of both locals and Australian travellers.
Bookings have been inconsistent for Wellington wine and food tour operator Philip Mildenhall, too.
While the week had been “torturously” quiet for Zozo Travel, the company had three back-to-back bookings on Saturday.
Mildenhall said before Covid, his business was mainly supported by international cruise ship tourists.
While Hirst in Queenstown says he was happy with the Australia bubble and wouldn’t be too comfortable opening up to other countries until “everyone is vaccinated”, Mildenhall was hoping for the return of the high-end cruise industry to boost his business.
Pre-Covid about 70 percent of his business was driven by internationals travelling on cruise ships from Sydney or the Pacific Islands.
Mildenhall said domestic demand had not been enough to make up for the 60 percent revenue shortfall because of Covid. “The travel bubble has definitely made a difference, I’ve had seven or eight bookings in the last month from people coming over from Australia,” Mildenhall said.
“Holiday bookings are slower to return. We expect that holiday bookings will continue to grow in popularity as Kiwi confidence grows in the managing of Covid breakouts and as more of Australia and New Zealand become vaccinated.”
– Flight Centre
Still, the company was running at reduced capacity for months due to the drop in demand.
As a result, the recent level change in Wellington had not put too much of a dampener on operations as reduced capacity has made it easier for customers to socially distance on tours.
Mildenhall remained optimistic about the future, with the company receiving forward bookings for January from travellers around the world, including the United States.
“Travel agents are also offering good cancellation terms so there are very few barriers to stop people from booking,” he said.
A Flight Centre NZ spokeswoman said most Trans-Tasman travel had been for family and friends visits.
“Holiday bookings are slower to return. We expect that holiday bookings will continue to grow in popularity as Kiwi confidence grows in the managing of Covid breakouts and as more of Australia and New Zealand become vaccinated,” the spokeswoman said.
Brisbane and the Gold Coast remain top destinations for Kiwis, and customers are pre-booking holiday packages for later in the year and over school holidays.
The Cook Islands travel bubble opened last month after some delays, but New Zealand tourism businesses hadn’t seen much impact.
“In the seven years I’ve had one booking from a couple from Rarotonga,” Mildenhall said. “It doesn’t make a difference at all.”
The impact of the bubble has been felt more by the Cook Islands.
Rarotongan tour company Lagoon Cruises manager Te Araiki Tuavera said boat tours had been packed with Kiwis. So much so, that Lagoon Cruises wasn’t able to keep up with demand as it was also facing a shortage of workers.
Tuavera said while the islands’ borders were closed, many tourism workers moved to New Zealand to work as fruit pickers or in meat works.
“We do get a lot of people coming over and booking with us. We can’t be fully operational, we can only do half the job that we do.”
He said volumes were not yet back to pre-Covid but every day seems to be busier than the last.
Data from hotel booking software company Preno’s data room occupancy for hotels in the Cook Islands accommodation is up to 54 percent for July and August, over the school holidays.
The Flight Centre spokeswoman said Cook Islands had continued to grow in popularity, and sales to the Cook Islands now actually rivalled pre-Covid sales.
But the impact of the Trans-Tasman bubble on New Zealand’s tourism industry might not be understood until the peak holiday season.
“There’s always going to be hiccups. The vaccine rollout has come out faster than I thought it would be.”
“But there’s no doubt it’s going to be a very longterm recovery but there’s light at the end of the tunnel now.”
– Mark Gilbert, Hassle-Free Tours
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows 16,320 Kiwis arrived in Australia for short-term visits in April this year, a result of the Australia-New Zealand travel bubble opening in mid-April.
That’s a tremendous increase from just 370 visitors from New Zealand in April last year. According to Tourism NZ, Australian tourists spent $2.7 billion in 2019. Kiwis spent close to that, $2.6b in Australia.
Christchurch-based Hassle Free Tours owner Mark Gilbert said although forward bookings were only up 5 percent of numbers he would normally carry, he felt the bubble was a “huge step in the right direction”.
“There’s always going to be hiccups. The vaccine rollout has come out faster than I thought it would be.”
“But there’s no doubt it’s going to be a very longterm recovery but there’s light at the end of the tunnel now.”
