The UK’s ruling Conservative Party could be staring at electoral oblivion according to the latest opinion polls out this weekend, with one commentator suggesting they could even be vulnerable to a hostile, aggressive takeover by Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform Party.
Less than three weeks out from the July 4 UK elections, YouGov put Reform UK one percentage point ahead of the Tories in what is called a “crossover moment”.
A Survation poll published by the UK’s Sunday Times predicted the Conservatives could end up with just 72 seats in the 650-member House of Commons, the lowest in their nearly 200-year history, while Labour would romp in with 456 seats.
The third poll, by Opinium for the Observer put Labour well ahead with 40 percent of the vote, the Conservatives on 23 percent and Reform on 14 percent.
Words such as electoral extinction and wipeout are being used to describe the Conservatives’ outlook.
“It’s getting worse and worse by the day, by the hour, maybe even by the minute,” says Newshub Europe correspondent Lisette Reymer.
“It feels like Rishi Sunak actually cannot do anything right,” she says, pointing to a series of gaffes since the day he called an early election in the pouring rain on the steps of Downing Street.
The most damaging was his decision to leave the 80th anniversary D-Day commemorations early to do an election interview. Sunak’s swift apology and admission that he made the wrong decision simply fuelled the criticism, says Reymer.
But the Conservatives’ poor polling reflects not only Sunak’s unpopularity but people’s disgruntlement over the way they’ve been treated in the past 14 years by the Tory governments.
“A lot of people have felt really neglected by the Conservatives, disregarded and forgotten,” she says.
People are willing to back Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer as the next Prime Minister – even though they know little about him or what he stands for – because they think he will be better than another five years in power for the Conservatives.
“That sums up the state of affairs over here at the moment. There is just this real lack of excitement over the future. No one’s looking at this election as, ‘Yay, there’s going to be this really bright new start and fresh energy and enthusiasm and real optimism for the country’.
“Everyone’s saying let’s just get the Conservatives out and what will be, will be, with Labour.”
Reymer tells The Detail how Reform’s Nigel Farage is gaining more attention from Conservative voters. Farage has had milkshakes thrown at him and plenty of other abuse over his populist right-wing views on migration, the climate and getting tough on crime, but he is gaining momentum on the campaign trail.
“They look over there and they see him making these big speeches, these big promises and being very aggressive in terms of his approach trying to steal those Conservative votes and thinking, ‘Yeah maybe it is worth a shot’.”
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