Jacinda Ardern seems set to secure a second term – but who will join her around the Cabinet table? There are a few gaps to be filled and some tough decisions to be made, Sam Sachdeva writes
Barring a political miracle for the National Party, or a polling error of unimaginable size, the Labour Party appears on track to be returned to power once the votes are counted on Saturday.
Understandably, Jacinda Ardern has made a point of ruling out any complacency or arrogance about the outcome – but it would be little surprise if her mind is starting to turn towards what she will do in a second term, and who she will do it with.
While there is less certainty over the identity of her coalition partner or partners, if Labour needs any at all, there will be some portfolios in need of filling in any event.
Here are just a few of the more interesting questions set to be answered once the result is known come October 17.
Foreign Affairs Minister
Murray McCully once said you shouldn’t be able to fit a cigarette paper between the views of a foreign affairs minister and their prime minister, such was the importance of maintaining consistent positions on the world stage.
But it was occasionally a case of “close, but no cigar” for Jacinda Ardern and Winston Peters during the last term, as the Foreign Affairs Minister would reach out beyond the Government’s position – sometimes in substance, other times in tone – only for Ardern to have to subtly intervene.
In fairness, there was never a truly calamitous misunderstanding between the pair, who appeared to have broadly similar views on Great Power rivalry and the importance of the Pacific.
But if, as seems likely, Peters and New Zealand First fail to return to Parliament, Ardern has a chance to choose a successor less likely to go off-script and easier to keep in line.
The two prime candidates would appear to be David Parker and Andrew Little – both suitably senior, both with some experience in external-facing role (for Parker trade, for Little the spy agencies), and both holding current portfolios that, while important, could feasibly be handed off to someone else if needed without major disruption.
The question for both would be whether they still have unfinished business at home: Parker often seems most passionate about his work as Environment Minister, while Little and the Government have gone nowhere close to fulfilling their rhetoric around justice reform.
Phil Goff did hold both the foreign affairs and justice roles in the first two terms of Helen Clark’s Labour government, although it could be argued a dedicated foreign minister is more important now given the increasingly unstable global picture.
Children’s Minister
Oranga Tamariki, and in particular its uplifts of (disproportionately Māori) children, has become a particularly pressing problem for Labour after a mid-2019 Newsroom investigation laid bare the process involved in taking a baby from its mother.
While Labour inherited the new ministry and model from its National predecessor, it is the current administration who have been put on the spot over claims of structural racism, with several reviews finding legal and procedural deficiencies.
It was Tracey Martin, a New Zealand First MP, who dealt with much of the outcry as Children’s Minister, steadfastly standing behind beleaguered Oranga Tamariki chief executive Grainne Moss.
While the new care model is still in a relatively early phase, a change of minister (and, possibly, chief executive) would allow a reset of sorts and help to rebuild relationships that have been frayed by the events of the last few years.
Appointing a Māori minister might help to show the Crown is serious about giving iwi greater representation in the decisions made about tamariki, although such a move would need to be followed up with meaningful action.
Peeni Henare has been among the most outspoken Māori ministers about the current situation so could be keen to take up the reins, although he has had some high-profile disagreements with Māori leaders over Whānau Ora.
Other options could include Nanaia Mahuta, Kelvin Davis, or – at a stretch – Greens co-leader Marama Davidson, should her party form some type of coalition agreement with Labour.
Labour minister Poto Williams is of Cook Island descent and has a background in child welfare and protection, saying in her 2014 maiden speech she dreamed of a community “where none of our children go hungry, where they are warm, they are healthy, and, above all, they are safe from the violence in their homes at the hands of those who are charged with their care”.
Education/Health Minister
If holding the education, state services and Leader of the House roles was not enough, in July Chris Hipkins took on the position of health minister following David Clark’s resignation.
Hipkins has certainly projected more confidence in the role regarding Covid-19 than Clark ever did, but it is hard if not impossible to see him holding both the education and health roles across a full term of government.
Education appears the role he is most passionate about, and there is still a fair amount of work to oversee on early childhood education and vocational training, the latter particularly important given the effect of Covid-19 on the labour market.
But health is probably more politically important for the Government, given the sweeping reforms recommended by the independent health and disability system review and the ongoing importance of public health systems to the Covid response.
Which role Hipkins ends up holding onto may depend on whether he is allowed to choose what he wants, or is asked by Ardern to go where he is most needed.
If he does stay as education minister, fellow fix-it minister Megan Woods seems a frontrunner for the health job, although NZ Herald political editor Audrey Young has suggested Parker could be lined up for the gig. Henare made a very public bid to become health minister during an appearance on Newshub Nation, but his ambition seems unlikely to be rewarded.
If Hipkins keeps health but drops education, it is not inconceivable that senior Māori minister and Labour deputy leader Kelvin Davis could take on the job.
A former school principal, Davis already holds an associate education role and could feasibly take on a large portfolio on top of Corrections, particularly if he were to step down as Tourism Minister. Such a move might also make it more palatable for Ardern to appoint Grant Robertson rather than Davis as Deputy Prime Minister without diminishing the latter’s mana.
The rising stars … and falling rocks
One of John Key’s strengths as a prime minister was his ability to constantly rejuvenate his ministerial ranks, weeding out poor performers or veteran MPs while making room for fresh talent.
Ardern will likewise be keen to ensure there is space to reward the next generation of ministerial talent, particularly given the perception that her Cabinet is made up of a handful of strong performers but many more “empty chairs”, as National’s ex-leader Todd Muller put it.
It is hard to imagine the cautious Ardern vaulting a first-term MP into a ministry in the way Key did with Steven Joyce, although under-secretary or parliamentary private secretary roles could be on offer for the likes of epidemiologist Ayesha Verrall or lawyer Vanushi Walters.
Labour whips Michael Wood, Kiritapu Allan and Kieran McAnulty would likely be towards the top of the list for any ministerial vacancies, along with New Lynn MP Deborah Russell.
There is the potential for rehabilitation of former ministers David Clark and Meka Whaitiri, depending on whether they are deemed to have sufficiently learned from their respective transgressions.
But as new ministers move up, some must go down – and it is Phil Twyford who probably has the most room for nervousness.
Twyford is somehow Labour’s fourth-ranked minister despite the KiwiBuild disaster and a similarly vexing time with Auckland light rail.
He has already lost the housing role, but it is hard to see how he can maintain his level of seniority, or possibly a ministerial role at all.
Yet Ardern has not shown a streak for cold-bloodedness so far, and it may be easier to simply move him down the ministerial rankings and give him less significant portfolios than to dump him altogether.
It is hard to know how bold the Prime Minister will be; certainly she has played it fairly safe over the last three years.
But there is a school of thought that a government never has as much political capital as it does at the start of a second term – and Ardern may well want to capitalise on that in personnel as well as policy changes.
