Public discomfort at gung-ho lack of compassion

Opinion: This is a very unusual government.

Being the first three-party coalition government under MMP already marked it out as so, especially because the two smaller partners campaigned so strongly against each other last year. In its first four months in office the Government has already had more public hiccups with ministers than other MMP governments. Unlike any other recent government, it has enjoyed no honeymoon period with the public or the media. And it is led by a political novice who still acts more like a corporate chief executive than a Prime Minister.

Yet the average of the opinion polls since the election shows that it is more than holding its own against the Opposition grouping; if anything, increasing slightly its overall support. And, despite vociferous opposition in some quarters to some of its policies, the Government and the National Party still seem to be more in tune with the public mood on the key concerns than Labour and its allies.

This is borne out by the findings of the February 2024 Ipsos poll monitoring the main subjects facing New Zealand and the respective abilities of the country’s political parties to manage those. According to Ipsos, National was rated as the most capable to manage New Zealand’s current top five concerns – inflation and the cost-of-living; housing and the cost of housing; healthcare and hospitals; crime, and law and order; and the economy generally. National’s lead over Labour has increased in each of these areas since it came to office.

On other matters, National is also dominant. It is rated most capable at dealing with petrol prices, transport, education, debt, unemployment, taxation, drug and alcohol abuse, immigration, population, defence, and foreign affairs. The Greens are rated the most capable on climate change and environmental pollution; Labour on poverty, inequality and race relations; and Te Pati Māori on matters affecting Māori.

But curiously, despite the public’s overwhelming preference for the National Party’s policy agenda, at least according to Ipsos, the Government rates poorly for its overall performance, slightly worse than the previous government at the time of its defeat last year. In fact, National’s rating is the lowest of any government since before the 2017 election.

Two points arise from these results. First, though there is strong overall support for the Government’s general direction, there is little goodwill. National (and its allies) are therefore likely to struggle to retain support if things perceptibly start to go wrong. There is no reservoir of political credit there to sustain the Government through the tough times.

The Government’s handling of its proposed mid-year tax reductions looks likely to be an early test of this. Already, given the deteriorating state of the economy, there are calls from across the spectrum, including former Prime Minister Sir John Key reportedly, for these to be delayed. But that seems a step too far for Finance Minister Nicola Willis to consider. She has pledged to resign if she does not deliver meaningful tax cuts. The Prime Minister has also thrown his weight behind tax cuts of an unspecified size this year.

The Ipsos poll finding rating National best on taxation suggests voters agree with the Willis proposition so far, regardless of whether tax cuts now will be good for the economy or not. The corollary, therefore, given that National has backed itself into a corner on tax cuts, is that it must now deliver a package of some sort in the coming Budget. This will risk incurring the equal wrath of those who think the move is irresponsible and those who think it will not go far enough.

The second point is a clear warning to the Labour Party as it begins the policy review journey initiated by its leader at the weekend. The cool public feelings towards the Government will give Labour some hope. But the Ipsos poll’s strong support for National’s policy direction on virtually all the key areas is a strong warning to Labour and its allies that their more collectivist and interventionist approach is still out of step with voters’ aspirations.

Again, tax will be at the forefront of this consideration. The Ipsos poll suggests New Zealanders are looking to an environment where they pay less tax overall, at variance with Labour’s and the Greens’ willingness to consider new capital gains and wealth taxes in the future. How Labour reconciles any emerging plans in these areas over the next couple of years with the apparent contrary public mood will be an interesting exercise. And the Ipsos poll’s findings that today’s top five concerns are likely to remain the same over the next five years, with the cost-of-living and the economy becoming even more significant, is of little consolation.

For National, the message is stark. It may well be winning voters’ approval for its actions to date, but it is not yet winning their hearts. The Act Party tweeting “Good” in response to public service job cuts in Wellington is a good example. Though few outside the capital probably worried too much about public-sector job cuts, many were offended by the apparent heartlessness of the comment, and David Seymour’s implicit support in retweeting it.

To put it another way, the Government has yet to learn how to govern with competence, humility, and compassion. So far, it has been a little too bumbling and gung-ho for its own good. Though people appear to like the direction in which it is travelling, they are feeling increasingly uncomfortable with the way it is going about things. For that reason, the Government’s approach needs to develop a little more finesse and polish to reassure people it has their best interests at heart and is not just focused on balancing the books.

Otherwise, it will continue to be an unusual government – doing all the right things but not winning the public’s confidence. And, without that, winning the next election will become very difficult.