One of New Zealand’s closest defence partners has warned of the possibility of “calamity” if countries didn’t come together to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the Middle East conflict.
“It is a very troubled world. And in particular, it is a very very troubled Middle East,” said Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, during a joint press conference with Christopher Luxon on Monday.
Lee made these comments just hours before officially announcing his resignation, after leading Singapore for 20 years.
The 72-year-old leader of the People’s Action Party (PAP) said he would step down on May 15, handing the reins to his chosen successor, Lawrence Wong.
The frank comments from Lee, and his surprise resignation announcement, came on the first full-day of Luxon’s packed programme in Southeast Asia, as Iran’s missile attack on Israel stole the focus.
“Nothing is going to solve the problems in the Middle East in the foreseeable future,” Lee said.
But he urged small nations, like New Zealand and Singapore, to play their part in trying to get other countries around the table to negotiate.
“And even that’s going to be very hard, given what happened on October 7, and post-October 7.
“But if you don’t try to do that, then you are saying that the only way is the way of the sword. And that is going to lead to calamity for everybody.”
If the world wanted to avoid “calamity”, then “strong and courageous” leaders needed to make some “very painful decisions”, Lee said.
Small countries needed to explain their stance and be clear about what they considered right and wrong.
“Because there are principles at stake, are humanitarian considerations at stake, and vital national interests, for us, at stake.”
The comments came off the back of a question from New Zealand media, following the pair’s bilateral meeting at the Singapore President’s Residence – the Istana.
Following a formal inspection of the guard of honour, Luxon took the opportunity to meet President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, before his bilateral meeting with Lee. Luxon also met Deputy Prime Minister Wong – a good move, now that he would be taking control of the country, sooner than many expected.
Luxon followed Lee’s comments on the Middle East with a brief reiteration of New Zealand’s position: a plea for countries to de-escalate and use multilateral institutions to negotiate a peaceful resolution.
Earlier in the day, Luxon said New Zealand condemned the actions of Iran. But he refused to say why his Government had not condemned Israel’s bombing of Iran’s embassy in Syria.
“This is something quite different. And it’s quite a delicate moment in the history of the region because we’ve had a direct attack from Iranian soil onto Israeli soil. Again, our message is very simple. You know, we just urge restraint and de-escalation in this region,” he said.
“We’re living in a more volatile, more uncertain, more complex, more ambiguous world. There’s a lot more geostrategic competition, as you have all observed.”
For now, the conflict remained far away. But both countries were well-aware of the possibility for rising tensions to boil over in their own backyard, with China becoming increasingly assertive in its actions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
In a Mfat briefing in December, officials warned of a very real “risk of miscalculation” given mounting tensions in seas which “cover over half of New Zealand’s trade”.
Meanwhile, the Defence Policy and Strategy Statement, released last year, said the wider Indo-Pacific was now the central global theatre for strategic competition.
“Intensifying strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific is increasing the potential for confrontation and means conflict could occur, potentially with little warning.”
It named increasing tensions relating to Taiwan, maritime tensions and competing claims in the South and East China Seas, and ongoing tensions on the Korean Peninsula, exacerbated by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s nuclear weapon and missile programmes, as potential triggers.
“Even without deliberate intent, tactical miscalculation could lead to conflict with consequences that could spread across the region,” the paper said.
In response, Indo-Pacific states were rapidly investing in their military and security capabilities in response to the range of security challenges they are facing.
The two countries also signed an agreement to streamline flows of critical supplies between Singapore and New Zealand during times of crisis. While Luxon referenced Covid-19, they would also be thinking of the possibility of trade routes shutting down should conflict flare in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, or elsewhere in the world. Countries had a taste of what could happen with the recent Red Sea attacks.
During Luxon’s visit to Singapore, the two countries also committed to building on their deep defence and security ties – a clear signal that small nations cannot stand idly by, while tensions escalate and conflict flares.
From next year, Singapore’s military would resume live-firing exercises in New Zealand. Exercise Thunder Warrior was paused due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and would be a welcome return, as one of the biggest tangible examples of defence cooperation between the countries.
Luxon said he would consider the possibility of Singapore using New Zealand airspace to test its military drones, following questions from Newshub on the potential new avenue for defence collaboration.
“Those are things that we’ll continue to discuss,” he said.
“I’m up for deepening defence ties with Singapore, period. And so I’m up for any of that conversation we want to have.”
However, there was no mention of whether the partners had discussed the possibility of Singapore basing its F-15 fighter jets in New Zealand.
In 2019, after nearly two years of discussions, the Ministry of Defence confirmed a proposal to conduct fighter jet training in New Zealand on a long-term basis would not take off.
Both Singapore and New Zealand are members of the Five Powers defence agreement, with Malaysia, Australia and the United Kingdom.
And behind closed doors, Singapore and other Southeast Asian countries were understood to be asking New Zealand for a greater defence and security presence in the region.
However, Luxon would not commit to more money for defence when asked, despite the coalition Government previously talking about lifting spending to 2 percent of GDP.
“We would like to lift our defence spending but as you know at home we have a structural deficit and a fiscal deficit, and so we have to fix our finances and our fiscal situation first and foremost.
“We are going to go through a defence capability review which has been kicked off, we have new leadership coming into our defence forces as well, so in fairness I want them to be able to identify what is the capability that we plan to build and develop over the coming years with the new leadership team in the defence forces.”
The two leaders also covered Aukus, with New Zealand actively considering joining Aukus Pillar Two. While Singapore was not a member of Aukus, Lee had expressed strong support for the defence pact.
While in Australia last month, he said he would welcome Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines into Singapore’s port, when they were ready.
Lee said he did not want Southeast Asia to become “an arena for proxy wars” and reiterated Singapore’s role as a “military access point” for western powers.
Luxon’s Singapore swing had been a good introduction to diplomacy in Southeast Asia, given his personal interest in the country and the close economic and security ties between the two nations.
Luxon said picking Singapore as his first bilateral visit, after Australia, was deliberate.
“It’s our most important partner that we have within the Southeast Asian region, “ he said, adding that the relationship was “multi-layered”.
That multi-layered relationship spans economic and trade ties, with Singapore being New Zealand’s fourth largest trading partner, accounting for $10.3 billion in total bilateral trade ($2.3b in exports) in 2023.
And while members of the travelling business delegation would make their own deals along the way, Luxon and Lee also used their meeting to announce plans to expand the enhanced partnership between the two countries, to put a greater emphasis on supply chain security and the green economy.
The Prime Minister kicked off the diplomatic side of his visit with a reception at the official residence of Gabrielle Rush, New Zealand’s High Commissioner to Singapore.
And ahead of his bilateral meetings, Luxon engaged in some orchid diplomacy, sporting a batik shirt.
A new hybrid breed of orchid, with purple, yellow and white petals, was named after him – Dendrobium Christopher Luxon – as was the custom with any new leader.
During his statement at the Istana, Luxon acknowledged his commitment to Singapore, and thanked the veteran leader for his guidance.
“You are quite rightly esteemed as a leader of the highest order for the world,” he said.
While the decision to prioritise Singapore was symbolic, it also allowed Luxon the opportunity to further test his diplomacy skills in a friendly setting.
In order for the problems in the Middle East to be ameliorated and calamity avoided it will be necessary to understand the historical / cultural context which goes back thousands of years. But alas, it is taboo to talk about that as the implications are both too frightening and too obvious.